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A strategy to make immigration the central issue in an upcoming election has dramatically failed for Poland's ruling party. Will they now acknowledge the country's urgent need for foreign workers?
When Poland’s ruling party decided to schedule a referendum on the European Union’s latest proposals for handling migrants and asylum seekers to coincide with the parliamentary election, their goal was to shift the election campaign's focus from the struggling economy to immigration.
However, in recent weeks, this plan has backfired. The Law and Justice (PiS) party has become embroiled in a scandal concerning the sale of work visas. On September 14, seven individuals were charged with alleged irregularities.
According to Eurostat data, Poland issued nearly one million residence visas to non-EU nationals in 2021, accounting for a third of all visas issued in the EU. In 2022, Poland issued just over 700,000 visas, many to individuals from Islamic countries, a demographic that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has often demonized. The fact-checking organization Demagog.org reported that in 2022, almost 185,000 people from Muslim-majority countries entered Poland, while only 1,746 were denied entry.
Recent media reports suggest that Poland’s consular sections have issued around 350,000 visas to migrants from Asia and Africa under suspicious circumstances. Migrants from these regions have claimed they received instructions to expedite the process, with some work visas being issued in as little as six hours. Videos on YouTube allegedly show agents opening envelopes containing pre-stamped and approved Polish visa applications that only need the applicant’s details.
Former deputy foreign minister Piotr Wawrzyk, who was dismissed on August 31, the same day the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau (CBA) searched the foreign ministry, is accused by the opposition of playing a central role in the visa scheme. On September 15, he was admitted to a Warsaw hospital citing “poor mental health” and has been quietly removed from the PiS list of candidates for the upcoming elections on October 15.
Other senior PiS figures are also implicated. Radio ZET discovered that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development had pressed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2022 to facilitate the entry of foreign workers for Polish farms. PiS MP and Deputy Minister of Agriculture Lech Kołakowski is named in the case. Another report claims that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zbigniew Rau, was aware of the visa trade.
Donald Tusk, leader of the opposition Civic Coalition, has labeled the affair “the biggest scandal in Poland this century.” He criticized PiS for bringing in the most Muslim immigrants despite using anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The scandal highlights an uncomfortable truth for PiS: despite its anti-immigrant stance, Poland desperately needs more foreign workers.
A report by Poland’s social security agency, ZUS, in July revealed that the country would need nearly two million more workers over the next decade to maintain its current ratio of working-age population to retirees.
In 2022, ZUS registered over one million migrants, primarily Ukrainians, in its systems. To maintain the current dependency ratio, the number of working-age foreigners would need to increase by 200,000-400,000 annually, reaching 2.8 million by 2032, or 13% of the working-age population.
For the past 18 months, Poland has relied on Ukrainian workers due to cultural similarities and proximity. Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, over one million Ukrainians sought refuge in Poland, with many finding jobs or starting businesses. However, the influx has slowed, with many Ukrainians returning home or moving to other countries, notably Germany. As of June 2023, there were approximately 1.1 million Ukrainian citizens in Germany and nearly 975,000 in Poland. This marks a decrease of over 350,000 registered Ukrainians in Poland and an increase of over 410,000 in Germany since August 2022.
